The Anguish of a Conservative Voter

OMIGOD! Donald Trump is going to be the Republican nominee!!
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Now that Donald Trump is the presumptive nominee of the Republican Party, what is a principled conservative voter to do? In occasional statements he makes that one would expect more from Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton, Mr. Trump betrays what he has assiduously tried to hide throughout the primary season: that he is really a progressive in conservative clothing. For example, the Donald recently said that he was open to raising the federal minimum wage, a position worthy of Bernie Sanders. He did not mention a specific minimum wage, but he said he was studying the issue and did not yet know if it should be raised from the current $7.25 per hour to $15.00, the precise amount advocated by Sen. Sanders.

Bait and Switch

It does seem as if the big “bait and switch” I had worried about in earlier posts is beginning earlier than I had expected. In a major reversal from a previous position on taxes, he told ABC’s This Week he wanted to raise taxes on the rich, a position worthy of Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton. In fact one might be pardoned the suspicion that the reason for Trump’s tax reversal is to woo the Bernie Sanders voters. What is wrong with raising taxes on the rich? As I have noted in several posts (see here and here) if we increase taxes on the rich, we reduce total investments for new productive capacity in the economy, thereby reducing GDP growth and the creation of new jobs. That would be like cutting off our noses to spite our faces!

Check out the video below for some of the wonderful progressive statements the Donald has made in the past.

Sounds a lot like a Democrat, does he not? Let’s consider some of the reasons we might want to join the “Never Trump under any circumstances” band.

Reasons For Disliking Trump

I discovered my first reason for disliking what Trump advocated when I heard he was against free-trade. Trump might say he is really for free-trade, but he does not like China and Mexico taking advantage of us. But anyone who has studied economics at all knows from Ricardo’s Law of Comparative Advantage that if the two sides of a trade agree, free from state coercion, to make the deal, it is a transaction that advantages both countries. What really harms American workers from foreign trade are transient effects that are temporary in nature, but temporary only if the government does not discourage free market activity through massively destructive economic regulations and burdensome taxation. If a company switches to foreign supply, capital that otherwise would have been used for domestic production is released for other uses.  In a free-market economy, such released capital would quickly find its way to new investments that would create even more jobs than were destroyed by “off-shoring” supply. Trump, Sanders, and Clinton would do far better by attacking government intrusions into the economy that destroy economic activity. Trump promises to institute tariffs that would be disastrous for foreign trade.

Either Trump is simply pandering to the rebellious electorate, or he has little knowledge of economics. I suspect both are probably true. Being a successful businessman does not confer all by itself great knowledge and wisdom about economics. Such an accomplishment only means he knows about his little piece of the economy.

Another example of his economic pandering or ignorance or both is his pledge not to touch entitlement spending in social security, medicare, and medicaid. Entitlement spending for which the government must pay out of the federal government’s general fund is the single most rapidly growing part of federal expenditures. The Heritage Foundation estimates that with current policies entitlement spending will reach 34% of GDP by 2035! That is 34% of GDP, not merely of the federal budget. With the federal budget absorbing about 20% of GDP, the entitlement and national debt interest spending will take over the federal budget long before 2035.  Within one or two decades, entitlement spending, together with paying interest on the national debt (now over 104% of GDP), will totally absorb every single penny of federal revenues. If we ever get to that point, we will have no more government, since the government will not be able to spend on anything else! Not to seek ways of reducing entitlement spending is extremely irresponsible.

A similarity between important aspects of Trump’s economic policies with those of the progressives is not the only convergence between Trump and the Left. It has been remarked by many that Trump’s foreign policy positions, to the extent they are even coherent, are very similar to those of Obama. Consider the following similarities between Trump and Obama:

1. Both are skeptical of many U.S. alliances (such as NATO), and are insistent that our allies share a lot more of the burden. Trump has gone so far as to threaten a U.S. withdrawal from NATO.
2. Both would lessen any promotion of democracy and human rights.
3. Obama and Trump have both advocated a more even-handed treatment between Israel and the Palestinians. Traditionally, The U.S. has given unstinting support to Israel as the only real democracy in the Middle East.
4. Both see Russia as a possible partner in the Middle East and would play down any Russian threats to Europe and Russia’s aggression in the Ukraine. Trump has particularly admired Vladimir Putin.

Traditional allies should be very wary that Donald Trump — like Obama — would not give them much support.

All of these considerations make me conclude that Donald Trump can in no way be considered a conservative. In the light of his expressed opinions, an honest judge would say he is really a progressive.

So what are conservatives’ options in dealing with the reality that Donald Trump is almost certainly going to be the Republican nominee?

Option 1: Hold Your Nose and Vote For the Man.

Our first option is to just hold our nose and vote for the guy. After all, if a Republican is not in the White House, we could expect a Democratic President to appoint a new Supreme Court Justice — maybe even three — who is a Leftist and who will give to the Left a majority of the Justices. Also, we might hope a Republican Congress might keep a President Trump in check.

Nevertheless, Trump’s economic program promises to be every bit as catastrophic as Hillary Clinton’s or Bernie Sanders’, and we would be more than likely to experience more of Trump’s backsliding toward progressive positions. If we are to experience economic disaster no matter who becomes president, it would be far better for the progressive to hold the office than someone who is mistakenly believed to be a conservative. Then the statist policies of the progressives would catch the blame, rather than supposedly conservative free-market policies that Trump would really not use.

Option 2: Vote For No One

Since both candidates of the major parties appear to be unacceptable from the conservative, free-market point of view, one possible response that is always available is to vote for no one. One way of looking at this sad situation is that the American electorate has not yet learned enough about the peril of statist progressive policies. Since the American electorate seems to be bound and determined to elect a president with progressive policies, perhaps the best thing a conservative can do is to just allow it to happen. Another four years of policies like Obama’s would give the American people another four years of education.

However, this kind of response somehow seems cowardly to me. If there is a way in which I can loudly protest and raise a big stink, I would take it. Not only would that put my objections on record, but it might help start the educational process for the next four years. I would take the path of voting for no one only if there were no  other way available.

Option 3: If There Is a Third-Party Candidate, Vote For Him/Her

An impressive number of very well known Republicans  have declared they can not support Donald Trump. Among these are numbered:

• Former Presidents George H. W. Bush and George W. Bush
• Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush
• Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C.
• Editor of The Weekly Standard William Kristol
• Pundit George Will
• Radio Host Glenn Beck
• Radio host Mark Levin
• Economist Thomas Sowell
• Writer Jonah Goldberg
• Senior writer at The Weekly Standard Stephen Hayes
• Former Reagan official Robert Kagan
• Former New York Governor George Pataki, R-NY
• Former Rep. Ron Paul, R-TX
• Former Governor of Pennsylvania Tom Ridge, R-PA
• Mitt Romney, 2012 GOP presidential nominee
• Rep. Mark Sanford, R-S.C.
• Sen. Ben Sasse, R-Neb.
• Former Rep. J.C. Watts, R-Ok
• Former Gov. Christine Todd Whitman, R-NJ

A much longer list can be found at the post See List of 99 Top Republicans Who Refuse To Back Trump. With such a large number of Republican defectors, there has been a firestorm of speculation on the possibility of a third party run against Trump and whoever becomes the Democratic nominee. Whether anything meaningful can be done at this late date is open to question, but it is a possibility a disaffected Republican voter should keep in mind.

Option 4: Vote For Hillary (or Bernie If Hillary Is Indicted!)

The only point to voting for the Democratic nominee would be to attempt to make it as certain as possible that Trump does not get elected. Otherwise, this action has nothing to recommend it for a Republican conservative.

This has been a strange and discouraging political season that can only bring anguish to a principled conservative. As bad as the past eight years under Obama have been, they may be about to get one hell of a lot worse.

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