The Growing Threat of Russia
Vladimir Putin has an itch. An itch for empire. We know the President of Russia considers the breakup of the Soviet Union as the major geopolitical disaster of the 20th century. More than that he has acted in a number of ways to start regaining the former possessions of the USSR in eastern Europe. First in 2008 he invaded the Eurasian country of Georgia, gobbling up the provinces of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in violation of the eventual cease fire negotiated by France. Next in early 2014, Russian troops invaded the Ukrainian province of the Crimea to support Russian-speaking rebels. On 18 March 2014, Russia officially annexed the Crimea into the Russian Federation. For what it is worth (not much), the United Nations General Assembly rejected the Russian annexation and adopted a non-binding resolution affirming the “territorial integrity of Ukraine within its internationally recognized borders”. To this day Russian armored and infantry units are fighting in two of the 25 remaining Ukrainian regions, Luhansk and Donetsk. Reportedly, Putin is considering eventually seizing eight eastern and southern Ukrainian regions that he calls by the Catherine II-era name “Novorossiya”. Currently, there has been a gathering of Russian generals (five identified) commanding separatist units, and more armor.
Georgia and the Ukraine are only the beginning of Putin’s ambitions. Multiple news sources this June have quoted the Russian news agency Interfax as saying the Russian Prosecuter General has started an investigation into the legality of Russia granting the Baltic states independence. Estonia, Lativia, and Lithuania were in the Soviet Union until the USSR fell apart in 1991. A finding that their independence was granted illegally would then give Putin a reason to invade. Given how Russia has been behaving in the Ukraine and Georgia, the Baltic States have been on high alert, suspecting they will receive some kind of military blow. Russian military provocations have included incursions into Baltic state airspace as well as into other NATO airspace, and a military buildup on their borders. Also read here for additional Russian provocations. Next door to the Baltic states across the Baltic Sea, Sweden has also been threatened with war should they decide to join NATO. Since the Baltic states have already joined NATO in 2004, this growing confrontation promises far more danger to the United States than the wars in Georgia and the Ukraine. Along with our other NATO allies, we would be obligated by the NATO treaty to come to the defense of the Baltic States should they be attacked by Russia.
In response to the Russian threat to the Baltic, NATO is deploying up to 40,000 troops of a new rapid response force together with a broader military force. In addition, the U.S. has decided to cache tanks, heavy artillery, and other heavy equipment within the Baltic states and some other eastern European nations. In the event of hostilities, U.S. rapid response forces could then be airlifted into the fight to use the prepositioned equipment. The six nations in which the equipment will be placed are Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, and Romania. Nevertheless, the stored gear is only sufficient for a single American brigade – a close to insignificant force compared to the divisions that Putin could send against it. At best, it represents a “tripwire” for the Russians. The Wall Street Journal quoted a senior military official who said
We’re talking about 250 armored vehicles, tanks, Bradleys and howitzers that would not fill up the parking lot of your average high school and they will be distributed in formations in several different countries,” said the official. “That’s the scale we’re talking about.”
This is not a vision that could give comfort for anyone in the West.
Yet all of the above is not the full measure of the threat posed by Russia to the West and their allies. There is in addition a de facto alliance between Russia, Iran, and China. While the P5+1 nations (the P5+1 are the five permanent members of the UN Security Council – China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the U.S. – plus Germany) negotiated an agreement with Iran to limit their enrichment of nuclear fuel, Russia decided to build two additional nuclear reactors at Bushehr, Iran with the option for six more.
Additionally, to counter the threat of air attack by the U.S. or Israel on Iran, Russia sold an advanced S-300 air defense system to Iran. The date of delivery has yet to be determined. Since Russia was part of the P5+1, they had self-imposed a Russian ban on selling sensitive defense systems to Iran. However, as soon as an outline deal was struck with Iran on April 2, Russia lifted that self-ban and immediately sold the system to Iran. Why is the S-300 such a big deal? The model of the S-300 most likely to be sold to Iran is said to be the S-300 PMU1. The missile in this system has a range of about 93 miles, can engage multiple targets, and hit targets as high as 90,000 feet in altitude. Satellites associated with the S-300 (and controlled by the Russians) can track targets as far as 150 miles away. The congressional blog with the on-line journal The Hill has a post in which it is stated
Should an S-300 battery be placed on Iran’s southern coast, Tehran could quickly detect American or allied aircraft taking off from local bases. Not only would most modern strike aircraft be vulnerable to detection and engagement far before reaching Iranian shores, the S-300 would allow Iran offensive capacities beyond its airspace, which could include harassing non-hostile aircraft flying over neighboring countries. As analysts have rightly noted, civilian air traffic could be dramatically disrupted if Iran chose to expand its belligerence to the skies. Suppressing this offensive aptitude would require the use of electronic warfare capabilities, such as those found in the U.S. Air Force’s EC-130HCompass Call, or the Navy’s EA-18G Growler against the platform.
This system would make Iran’s nuclear sites all but invulnerable to any but stealth attack aircraft, and therefore safe from Israeli aircraft. Nobody in the West other than the United States would have the capability.
One might think that Russia made these two sales purely for the profits. Certainly, given Iran’s antipathy to Western civilization, any alliance between Russia and Iran could only be one of convenience. Nevertheless it suits Putin’s purposes to buttress Iran as a thorn in the side of the West. The more we have to concentrate on Iran, the less we will have in assets to direct against Russia.
All of these threats are occurring at the same time that we are faced with existential treats from al Qaeda and ISIS, and while our armed forces are deteriorating. It would seem that we now have a revived cold war with Russia, and that cold war could get very hot, very quickly.
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